Tuesday, June 25, 2013

Snowden Spy Thriller: Act 2 Propaganda Value

Mr. Snowden has now left Hong Kong/China.  The Hong Kong, thus Chinese, government determined that the US provisional warrant was not sufficiently informative to make a decision on the matter.  The question on many minds is, since Mr. Snowden's US Passport was revoked, what nation issued him a passport? 

At this point, it doesn't matter.  Mr. Snowden's "passport" is the intel he is carrying around in computers and his head.  China...er...Hong Kong had no more need for Mr. Snowden.  They received everything they needed. 

Now Mr. Snowden is in Russia, likely provided them intel and is on his way somewhere else because Russia doesn't have to keep him, either.  Because, like China, they must surely understand the propaganda value of leaving him free.

It suits them fine that Mr. Snowden is still in the wind.  So long as he remains "free", without any country "claiming" him, the farcical act of "American Patriot striking a blow for freedom" goes on even as he provides unknown, damaging intelligence to various nations. 

It has divided the US and many allies right along the fault line that has been brewing for awhile regarding our ideas about freedom and rights.  The ideas that China and Russia believe, along with others, is our biggest weakness and hypocrisy.  "Look," they are laughing loudly, "you are living a lie.  How dare you question the lack of freedom in our countries when you do the same.  Try standing up for freedom now.  Suckers."

Here we are, many willingly playing along with this game, sucking up the propaganda and doing exactly as intended.  We are now confused, dazed and reeling internally and globally.  It has been an awesome blow and the current administration has no idea how to handle it even as the blow is struck again and again.

The worst aspect is that, yes, many people are buying into this propaganda that we have some how become a police state equal to that of China or Russia or Iran or any of the worst offenders.  It is utter bull shit to put it bluntly. 

We may need to discuss the parameters of our internal data collection and use, but no one has as yet been able to link it to the persecution or prosecution of any "dissidents" or "political enemies" beyond hyperbolic polemics about the possibilities.  Or, some misbegotten idea that a disgruntled private releasing a gargantuan trove of state documents, including names of contacts necessarily, endangering the same, is a political prisoner.  Spare me. 

We are not China.  China that has put political dissidents under "house arrest", persecuting, prosecuting and terrorizing not only the individuals, but their families.  We are not China.  China that has extra state political security organizations that freely and without fear of prosecution detain, torture and kill any "violators" of their party politics or just happen to run afoul of more powerful personages in the party. 

We are not Russia.  Russia who has arrested, persecuted and prosecuted an all girl band for having video taped a song against Putin and real political oppression.  We are not Russia.  Russia who has arrested, persecuted, prosecuted and murdered their own political dissidents and opposition.  Russia that has persecuted, prosecuted and closed numerous NGO's dealing with human rights and civil society.

We are not China or Russia whose media must live in real fear of simply printing or saying anything that the government deems "injurious".  That is not the same as discussing or even investigating methods by which our own media obtains information and whether it is really in the public's best interest to have or constitutes an abuse.  In those countries, any media that dared to go to press with secret intelligence information would be deemed a real "enemy of the state" and find themselves dead or locked in some hell hole of a prison receiving extra special "state hospitality" after a short show trial and very little discussion of the right or necessity of a free press.

We have an unknown and vast quantity of political dissidents, NGO's, rights organizations and media that routinely and successfuly challenges the government, it's reach and it's authority.  Routinely publishes pieces challenging the government and leadership's competency.  Citizens every day do so with very little regard or concern for their safety or future freedom.  Except in corners and pockets where fevered  conspiracy reigns supreme.  No, we did not kill Michael Hastings and the CIA did not assassinate President Kennedy.

We may and should discuss our freedoms, rights and the power we give to government and authorities.   That is our right by God and by Law.  We will not give that up to anyone, least of all nations whose ideas of "freedom" and "democracy" mock the very words. 

Yet, here we are, naval gazing like puppets on command, sucking up the propaganda that is this entire fiasco from start to finish.  Freedom is under attack globally.  It is being pushed back at this very moment in China, Russia, Iran and many other places. 

There are exceedingly few places which can compare to even this "flawed" state of freedom we live in.   The idea that the United States and it's western allies equate to the authoritarian or tyrannical states currently flipping us the bird is unequivocally ridiculous, naive and damned near childish view of the world we live in.

Mr. Snowden, et al, along with their defenders, believe they have struck a blow for freedom.  They have not.  They have struck a blow TO freedom.  Now, when we cast our gaze upon real violations of freedom and democracy, real persecution and prosecution of the advocates of those ideas, Mr. Snowden, et al have given these nations the cover of pretense.  The pretense that we do not know, live by or practise those beliefs. That our nation of laws and rights is nothing but pretense that can be easily ignored or shuffled to the side.  That we are no better than the least free of these nations.

Bull shit. 

We are discussing these issues at this very moment.  The fact that we can discuss these questions regarding our own government puts us far ahead of any would be detractors.  We will continue to, but we should be aware and wary that we are under a, to date, successful propaganda attack.  An attack that few want to recognize as we go careening around, throwing out hyperbolic denunciations, wounding ourselves inexplicably at the hands of truly authoritarian, unfree states.

That injury to global freedom, it's propagation and defense, is only the tip of the ice berg. Yet, it has potentially set freedom back globally for years and left untold numbers of real advocates for freedom dangling in the wind without the simplest or least cover in nations around the world.  The very global freedom that Mr. Snowden et al were allegedly acting in the interest of.

We do not even know as yet what information Mr. Snowden is providing beyond systems, numbers and email addresses, possibly of these very same advocates we have been working to support or people working with them.  How is that defending freedom, global or otherwise?

Even if, bizarrely and barely sustainable, Mr. Snowden only gives away such things, as one defender put it, "that we already knew" like hacking China (largely state owned or associated) corporations and "research" institutes, he did incredible damage to the defense of freedom, the idea of private property, the US and allied economy as well as defense.  Ludicrous? 

China has been hacking our corporations, banks, institutes, research facilities, private information, etc for years.  Stealing research and plans that would have or should have been the private property of US individuals and corporations.  Ideas and property that, had we maintained control, development and production of, would have resulted in jobs and improved the economy, thus, economic freedom of untold numbers of American citizens and many others internationally. 

Through these systems and processes Mr. Snowden outed, in detail it should be noted, the United States was searching for and finding this stolen property, what it was and possibly how it got there in order to stop this outright theft of intellectual property that is harming our economy. 

When the US economy is harmed, people lose their jobs, their homes and much more.   When the US economy is harmed, so to is our ability to project political power.  Power that is as often used to defend freedom globally as anything else.

What of matters of defense?  Are we to presume, as Mr. Snowden suggested, that in this detailed data information, there were no institutes, research or programs that did not constitute "legitimate military targets"?  Military intelligence that would keep us abreast of developments and help prepare defensive counter measures?  What are "legitimate targets" when, for decades, "war" has become total to include economic, production, political and physical structures?  Now to include electronics or "cyber". 

In Mr. Snowden et al's myopic view, the US and allies, in the name of some misbegotten and misshapen view of "global freedom", should refrain from such activities.  All the while, opposing states such as China, Russia, Iran, etc should be free to pummel, rape and dismantle us at will and without consequences.  As surely they will be able to now that they know the ways and means by which they to can act.  Above and beyond what they already know.  Above and beyond what ways and means they were tracking their own dissidents through whatever devices they already had at hand.

This is but a few of the "damages" this entire debacle has and will inflict to "freedom".  Some where amongst the tidal wave of destruction, is debate about our necessity for internal review of rights, freedoms and protections.  About the proper use and limitations of authority.  Some will claim that this discussion of Snowden's international circus of espionage is a distraction from this real and necessary debate.  That some how, what Mr. Snowden is doing now has no baring on this issue and still suggests he and others are working in the best interest of freedom.  Our freedom.

Bull shit.

Unfortunately, these are no longer separate issues.  It was never Mr.Snowden's intent to bolster US or western freedoms, but to offer a dribble to distract as he went traipsing around the world, offering this information to anyone BUT free nations.  Our alleged internal issue, long in debate, was a decoy, a smoke screen, so many have fallen for so easily and regurgitate without the slightest clue they are propagating propaganda.  The contortions that Mr. Snowden's defenders, et al, must go through to justify this act are breath taking examples of obtuseness and ideology over coming common sense.

The utopian view of global freedom, lack thereof and the equivalency of states as equal oppressors is a juvenile comprehension of reality.  It's this utopian "global freedom" that was meant to be propagated and has been, instead, struck an horrific blow.

What has Mr. Snowden et al done in reality for freedom around the world? 

Not a goddamned thing.

Monday, June 24, 2013

Snowden internet foot print

JΞSTΞR™ (@th3j35t3r) tweeted at 3:16 AM on Mon, Jun 24, 2013: Footprint of Edward 'theTrueHooah' #Snowden from Jan 2000 right up until the day before he identified himself: http://t.co/swCgrrvge8 (https://twitter.com/th3j35t3r/status/349078516089888768) Get the official Twitter app at https://twitter.com/download

Saturday, June 22, 2013

Mr. Snowden, International Man of Little Mystery: Spy Thriller of the Year

Whether Mr. Snowden broke any laws under the Espionage Act is not in question.  He did. 

Has NSA routinely, with malice afore thought, broken US laws & regulations regarding surveillance of US citizens, is still being sorted out.  Several former intelligence employees suggest that this is separate from Mr. Snowden's other acts and the question of whether he is a "hero" for American Liberties or "villain" of espionage. 

This is also now being suggested through multiple editorials & reporters.  All the while, Mr. Snowden's releases of information on intelligence activities have grown larger and more damaging regarding activities against foreign targets like China and Russia.  Particularly damaging as these seem to coincide with specific global political events including US President Obama meeting with the Chinese President Xi and then the G8 meeting where President Obama  suggested a nuclear draw down as well as discussions on Syria with Russian President Putin.  Discussions that went no where and left the United States appearing weaker on the global stage. 

While pundits are discussing US government conspiracies to allegedly monitor all US electronic communications, the real conspiracy is staring them in the face.  Mr. Snowden's acts of releasing info on alleged US domestic surveillance can no longer be separated from his other acts regarding foreign intelligence operations. 

The first release of information did exactly what it was supposed to do: distract.  It was a decoy and US and global media are "hoovering" it up, while the real story is that Mr Snowden "hoovered" specific intel FROM, not just "on" or "about", a very specific program which he technically was not cleared to have access to.

That bares repeating.  He copied very specific intel FROM a specific program including targeted foreign systems, computers, organizations, people, IPs, emails, etc.  That does not show his alleged "good intentions" to expose a specific bad act of a government agency against it's own citizens since he did not limit his acquisition or release to those specific acts. 

That is proven even more true when that intel included foreign activities and targets that was subsequently released as noted above.  The total quantity and type of information that is yet unknown.  At least by the public. 

Mr. Greenwald has claimed that there are literally thousands of documents to be combed through and evaluated.  We know by the release of information on the intelligence gathering against China to a Hong Kong paper that Mr. Greenwald & his fellows from the Washington Post do not have the only copies.  Further, that this specific information was readily known and provided with apparent ease which undermines the idea that it was "discovered" by an incidental review of the information. 

Mr. Snowden did not "luck into" a job at Booz Allen, but specifically worked towards gaining this position and access to information.  He did this through networking and subterfuge on his application.  He did this to gain access to that intelligence.  For whom or under what direction, if any, is still to be discovered. 

The entire episode, from start to finish, reads like a spy thriller or the script of a spy movie.  Mr. Snowden is acting from a very cleverly developed script.  Even some of his comments read like one liners from classic movies about spies and journalism (North by Northwest and Citizen Kane to name two).  That script includes a "good hearted, but ultimately flawed" pole dancing girlfriend whom Mr. Snowden graciously left behind, holding the bag. 

What essentially gives the game away that this is a pre-arranged script for espionage is the time frame of events.  Mr. Snowden had been employed by Booz Allen for only a few months prior to this event.  Hardly long enough to "discover" and review all of the information taken, decide there was a criminal government act underway, much less determine and arrange media contacts on that information, investigate and evaluate a country to escape to for "legal protection", arrange a safe place to stay, money, more media contacts, identity, etc.

Even an alleged genius such as Mr. Snowden would be hard pressed to achieve these feats alone in the allotted time frame.  This intelligence information was "the target", not an incidental discovery of a system administrator who accidentally discovered the range and scope of this program while plunking around his keyboard.

Another interesting part of this story is that long before Mr. Snowden obtained his position at Booz Allen, his tech forum account had specifically asked how to write a work around script for Windows to allow the download of two files/folders per day.  It would be safe to assume the purpose of this information was to be able to gain information slowly without setting off any particular alarms from any monitoring system. 

This is the likely method by which Mr. Snowden downloaded information to the four or more thumb drives or lap tops he then walked out of the office.  Simple, but effective.  Also thought out and arranged ahead of time.  Based on that information, simple extrapolation of days worked means he left with between forty and sixty files with an unknown number of attachments or documents.  Depending on whether the "two per day" method was maintained.

Another question is raised when Mr. Snowden claims to have been making a $200k/yr salary at Booz Allen.  The company disputed that claim indicating Snowden only made $122k/yr.  Mr. Snowden then claimed that $200k was the most he'd been paid at any of his jobs. 

The media and various pundits are hypnotized by the "decoy" first release of information on the program while Mr. Snowden is sitting on a trove of intelligence with an unknown scope and value to an unknown number of foreign nations.  Many of whom are no friends to the United States, United Kingdom or other allies.  It is myopic to assume that this information "only" contains electronic intelligence, without information on human assets, contacts or activities.  People's lives endangered, not just inanimate computer systems.

Mr. Snowden knew what information he was looking for and planned how to obtain it before he had access.  This is the essence of "espionage". 

Mr. Snowden and his potential co-conspirators or handlers have created the spy thriller of the year.  A well thought out script with specific plot points, not accidents of fate.  A script that has been refined over a length of time that started before Mr. Snowden's employment at Booz Allen. 

In this script, Mr. Snowden started this second act by portraying himself as a patriotic American protecting civil liberties.  He ended that act by releasing foreign intelligence on foreign targets, negating any idea of patriotism as the rationale for his behavior.  He has essentially blown his cover.

The third act in this spy thriller begins with the United States issuing a provisional warrant for Mr. Snowden, laying preliminary charges under the Espionage Act.  For those watching "the Great Game", the US has decided to force China's hand into the open by belaying his extradition or straight offering him "asylum". 

Stay tuned for the next act of Mr. Snowden, International Man of Mystery.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

Tsarnaev, Todashev & Walthm 3 Murders: Personal

One of the many questions circling the murders of Brendan Mess, Erik Weissman and Rafael Teken is whether the motivation is a drug related murder or it is the first expression of "Jihad" or ideology by the Tsarnaev brothers.  After careful consideration, the answer appears to be both.  At the same time, the motives do not appear to share equal precedence. 
This post will attempt to evaluate information, evidence and behavioral aspects of the crime to establish the possible motives for the murder.  This must be considered incomplete as some details, information and evidence have not been released to the public.
As previously noted, the things that all of these men have in common are drugs, MMA gym/fighting, and friendship.  The thing that must keep coming to the fore is why did Tamerlan Tsarnaev allegedly kill the man he described as his "best friend" along with two other men he shared fairly close relationships? 
These men have trained together, partied together, ate together and likely chased women together.  They may even do business together as it has been reported that both Tamerlan and Dzhokhar were small time dealers and users while Weissman and Mess appear to have had greater resources and business plans.(Business was good, as Mess apparently traveled to Cancun, Mexico with his friends from the rap group "FlyRydaz" in June 2011; scroll down to bottom for 2nd video tribute). 
This is not a relationship that is simply "terminated" over ideology.  Particularly an ideology that Tamerlan and Dzhokhar may not have fully committed to in 2011.  At least, not until briefly before the three men are murdered or directly as a result of the murders.
Those who are following the Tsarnaevs' path to radicalisation, along with at least two of the men's religion (Jews), the date they were murdered (September 11, 2011) and the manner (throats slashed, nearly decapitated) appear to be focusing on ideology as the motive.
The problems with this being the sole motive are several.  The main issue is that these aren't just any acquaintances who happen to be Jewish.  They are, what appears to be, Tamerlan's closest friends and companions
Even as he embraces his religion, that relationship does not end.  Mess' girlfriend tells detectives and reporters that Tamerlan was often at the apartment and even regularly ate there, asking her to cook him special (halal) meals.  The men were even once room mates. 
In the realm of human behavior, the murder of a friend or family member is most often due to a personal problem the murder perceives with the victim.  The method of the murder also suggests that the motive was personal.  Stabbing, slitting of throat with a knife requires touching the victim.  In this case, all three victims.  There would be a considerable amount of blood transfer to the assailant.   
Stabbing or cutting the victim reflects several subconscious needs of the perpetrator.  One need or desire, represented by close contact or touching the victim, is to re-enforce on the victim who is doing the killing.  Second, a need to touch or be close to the victim's pain and death.  As if it will assuage whatever "pain" the perpetrator feels the victim has inflicted on the killer.  Third, to make the victim "feel" the killer's "pain". In other words, "you have hurt me, now I will hurt you."
When the victim of such an attack is a stranger, the victim is essentially a substitute for the person, group or entity that the killer feels has wronged them in some manner.  When the victim is a friend, acquaintance, family member or spouse, the killer most likely believes that the victim is directly responsible for whatever real or imagined wrong has occurred.
This suggests that despite the date chosen and the men's religion, the motive for the murders was something personal between the victims and perpetrator(s).  This does not mean that religion and ideology did not play some part in the motive or the message (signature), but that they were secondary or even tertiary to the very personal reason the men had to die in the Tsarnaevs' minds.
"Had to die" is the key.  The Tsarnaev brothers went out of their way to insure that the three men would be at the apartment on the day of the murders.  According to reports, Tamerlan and Mess spoke a few days before the murders.  The girlfriend indicates that, during that conversation, Mess expressly told Tamerlan that the three men would be watching football on that night.  There may even have been a suggestion that Tamerlan was invited for the event or later confirmed the men would be there.
If the motive for the murder was a "drug rip off", the prospect of doing so while all three men were in residence appears unnecessarily risky. 
The question then is what great wrong have these three men committed against Tamerlan Tsarnaev and, by extension, his brother Dzhokhar?
The marijuana strewn over the bodies is also a "personal" message and, as the detectives first suggested, may have played a prominent role in the motivation for the murders.  This message appears to convey both a contempt for the men as well as their "business".  It could also convey contempt for the drugs.
Tamerlan's growing religiosity and the tenets of his faith may have provided the onus for this message.  Islam is highly prohibitive of consumption of alcohol as well as other products that necessarily impair the mind and lower inhibitions to other sins. 
The problem with this theory is that it is reported that Tamerlan never stopped smoking marijuana, at least up to the time of the murders.  He was possibly selling the drug and Mess may have been his supplier.  Dzhokhar, in fact, is known to have continued to sell the drug and smoke it up to and after the Marathon bombings. 
Dzhokhar actually tweets a response to a friend who referenced "the bombers".  Dzhokhar, possibly telling one truth at this moment, replies "those guys are cooked".   The bombers, he and his brother, were high.  The reference to "cooked" or getting "cooked" is seen throughout Dzhokhar's Twitter feed (@J_tsar) whenever he or his friends are discussing getting high.
The "personal message" of the drugs then seems to imply a different issue Tamerlan had with the victims.  The drugs, an estimated 7lbs of marijuana, was not only spread over the bodies, but, in essence, left behind.  As if to say it was no longer wanted or needed, that the victims could "keep" the marijuana even though they would obviously no longer have any use for it.
This is also true of approximately $5k in money.  Mess' girlfriend suggested that there was much more money in the apartment before she had left.  No report indicates whether the $5k was hidden and possibly missed by the assailants. 
If the money was readily available, but the amount was specifically left behind, it could have several connotations. The first is that the assailants wanted to throw off any investigation.  This did, in fact, lead the investigators to believe that the assailants were likely a competitor.  The detectives even suggested an angry customer, though this was early in the investigation and an angry customer was more likely to take both the money and the drugs. 
A rival would likely take the money, but possibly leave the drugs behind as they would have no need or could not guarantee the purity if they sold it to their customers.  Reputation is an important factor in cultivating and keeping customers.
The second implication is that the assailants only took what they needed or what they felt was owed to them by the victims, leaving the rest behind.  Another sign of contempt for the men, their business and possibly a point of "honor" with the assailants.  This may even be construed as leaving behind what the perpetrator(s) owed to the victims.
Another factor of the murders that indicates the "personal" nature is that the men were found bound, gagged and face down (there may be some question whether all of the men were bound and gagged as Weissman was found in the entry way, presumably attacked when he opened the door; it's unknown or unreported whether he died immediately or was incapacitated and murdered later).  They were likely murdered in this position. 
Two points on this position.  First, if the men were face down when they were murdered, it suggests that the murderer(s) did not want to look into the victims' eyes as they were perpetrating the act.  This was not to hide the identity of the murderer(s).  The three men would already know the assailant(s) as they were fully conscious when the attacks occurred. 
This indicates a sign of guilt, contrition or the need to put emotional distance between the assailant(s) and the victims.   Possibly because the assailant(s) might feel unable to carry out the last act if they had to look into the victims' eyes.  
The victims' backs were also to their murderer(s).   This may imply the problem that the murderer(s) had with the victims.  That they had gone behind the back or stabbed them in the back.  The assailant(s) were returning the insult.  That the throats were cut might also imply that the murderer(s) felt the victims had figuratively "cut" the assailant(s) throat over some matter.  Again, returning the insult.
The second point is simply the logistics of the act itself.  Mechanically, it would be easier to cut someone's throat coming from the rear.  Particularly if the act was an attempt to actually decapitate the victims.  This position provides additional leverage.  Even without that aspect of the act, a victim would be more likely to struggle, even bound and gagged, if they could see the attack coming.
The act of cutting the throat and nearly decapitating the men may have an ideological connotation directly related to the most notorious acts committed in the name of jihad: beheading.   The conflation and integration of ideology with the motive for murders will be explored in a follow on post. 
The final message of these murders is the severing of friendship.  Not only figuratively through the slicing of throats, but literally by the men's murders. Whatever friendship the men might have shared no longer exists, if, in the killer's mind, it ever existed at all.
Based on this evaluation, it may be concluded that the primary motive for these murders is personal due to an insult, offense or perceived wrong Tamerlan, and by extension, Dzhokhar, believes was committed by these men personally against them, not against "all Muslims".  That this insult was directly related to money and drugs.  That the brothers felt their friendship had been abused or was exploited by these men for personal gain.  That the brothers felt these men owed them something; not only money, but up to and including their lives.
Thank you to "Boston Boomer" at The Sky Dancing Blog for curating many of links.   Also see this blog post on the Watertown drug scene and possible links to murder.
Follow on posts: Personal Meets Jihad (the role of ideology in the murders); Hired Gun (Todashev's possible involvement with the murders); Escape to Jihad (the role of the murders in the finalization of commitment to Jihad in Dagestan)

Saturday, June 8, 2013

The Great Debate: Radicalisation & Terrorism

There is a great debate on the internet regarding the power, purpose and persuasion of Al Qaeda's Takfiri Islamist Ideology to turn other wise "normal" people into "radical" terrorists.  Having watched war, terrorism, AQ, Islam and the many other human tragedies, it struck me that this idea of "radicalisation" and so called "lone wolf" terrorism is over emphasized.  Possibly to the detriment of detecting a person who is or will be shortly planning a terrorist attack within the United States as a domestic terrorist. 

IE, a person who has lived in the United States for a period of time and commits the act of terrorism inside the United States. As opposed to a foreign born or planned act of terrorism or terrorist.  I believe there is a distinction between these two types of "terrorists".  Even though they may share some distinct markers and in the end claim a similar ideology, the reasons or principles drivers for these acts are not necessarily the same.

If we were to strip away the ideology for just a moment and look at the people involved in the acts, we can compare their behavior and psycho-social markers with others who commit similar crimes: mass murderers, spree murderers, fratricide and even suicide.  What we will find is that the individuals involved feel they are under a great deal of pressure without a suitable path to escape or resolve their issues.

Note the term issue(s).  Not singular, multiple.  While a singular, final incident may spark the flame, this is likely not enough to cause the unmitigated pressure that would have the individual overthrow a life time of behavior patterns that explicitly do not include routine episodes of mass murder or suicide. 

That includes even the introduction of an aberrant ideology.  This adoption of an ideology appears to take place after other events including personal tragedies or failures.  This ideology may become the "permission" to finally act out to relieve the stresses the person is undergoing.  Conversely, as we see with other mass murderers, spree killers, suicides, etc who are not followers of an aberrant ideology, the introduction of ideology is not necessary to the acts.

The reason this concept is important is that emphasis on ideology and it's markers may lead law enforcement to dismiss certain potential suspects who do not meet these overt markers.  Such is the case with Tamerlan and Dzokhar Tsarnaev.

Even when law enforcement is notified of the potential and does an interview, the lack of these overt markers leads the agents to dismiss the possibility.  Understanding what other psycho-social drivers may lead to these acts may assist in better identifying potential terrorist behavior. 

This is my interest in the life and times of Tamerlan Tsarnaev.  Even the adherence or adoption of a more strict form of Islam does not necessarily lead to acts of terrorism.  This, I believe, is true of Tsarnaev.  That he, like many other mass murderers, had other stresses that led him to the acts.  That the adoption of this ideology took place after he had already determined that he had no other options and was already seeking a method to eliminate these stresses through violent means.

This essentially dismisses holistic ideas that international issues like ongoing wars in other Muslim nations, drone strikes or any other activity classified as "anti-Islam" are the drivers for domestic terrorism.  These issues are adopted at the end, after other drivers have effected a sense of being "cornered" in their personal lives without a way to relieve the stresses.  Identifying with global issues is away to rise above these personal issues and pretend that it is part of a greater whole instead of the personal failures of the individual.


Friday, June 7, 2013

The Best Men In the CIA are Women:

From this story, discussing being a "spy" with Lindsay Moran who is on twitter @lindsaymoran. 

One point that Moran makes that I partially disagree with is that the drone strikes in other countries creates domestic terrorists.  While Moran is making this reference originally regarding Yemen, she goes on to attach the Boston bombers to the outcome of creating "Terrorists".

In nations such as Pakistan and Yemen, there is a high likelihood that drone strikes contribute to the joining or inculcation of terrorist organizations or their ideology/narrative.  A narrative we have limited ability to effect having little foot print inside these nations and limited ability to communicate on a wider platform.  Such narratives are invariably geographically "local", thus, local events like drone strikes impact the local narrative.

My objection is explicitly to the reference of the Boston bombers.  While Tamerlan Tsarnaev expresses the world view of global jihad and attacks against Muslims, his ideas are far ranging and not necessarily or directly impacted by these events.  Except possibly the death of Al Alawki who is reported to be one of Tsarnaev's inspirations and was killed by a drone strike.

The issue is that both Tamerlan Tsarnaev and his brother Dzhokhar had other, local and personal issues that drove them to an act of terror.  In fact, the brothers seemed only to have settled on an act inside the United States when they were unable to reach or join their intended group in the Caucasus. 

Tamerlan went expressly looking to join this group in January 2011.  He was thwarted essentially by FSB activity that eliminated his contact.  Fear and familial pressure from his father drove him back to the United States in June 2011. 

Dzhokhar in March 2011 tweet had originally informed his acquaintainces he was going to go "home" (to Dagestan).  He later tweeted that there was a problem with his passport and he would be unable to go.  This suggests that he was intending to join his brother, but events prevented him from going. 

Whether the issue was actually a problem with his passport or something else remains to be validated.  What can't be missed is that both men had been slowly identifying with their "heritage" and focusing on going "over there". 

Since Russia is not the perpetrator of these drone attacks, it is hard to fathom how US activities on this directly lead to the brothers' acts on US soil.  Acts which are best described as the Tsarnaev brothers' "plan B" to go on jihad.

Therefore, directly relating drone strikes that necessarily occur "over there" and have greater "local impact" (ie in the country it occurs in) to domestic terrorist plots is pushing a narrative that is not validated by the example case.

Political Violence Prevention: Profiling Domestic Terrorists

Monday, June 3, 2013

A Terrorist State of Mind: Complex Psychology v Simplistic Analysis

A radicalisation expert's view on The Reluctant Fundamentalist http://gu.com/p/3g9xb

(The Reluctant Fundamentalist is a movie/agitprop)

A Terrorist State of Mind: The Reasons Within Reasons

Will we ever really know why people turn to terrorism? | Peter Beaumont http://gu.com/p/3g9an

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Continuing Education: Jihad and Islamic Jurisprudence

Kat Mo (@Kat_Missouri) tweeted at 1:25 AM on Sat, Jun 01, 2013: MT Listen & Learn @KarlMorand: Jihad, militancy, Shia v Sunni, Islamic Jurisprudence on Jihad, etc http://t.co/lNl3ikXOzh" (https://twitter.com/Kat_Missouri/status/340715727977865217) Get the official Twitter app at https://twitter.com/download