Because this all seems to be going down the rabbit hole, I decided to put together a few notes on the murder that seems to have precipitated the Boston Marathon attacks. Yes, some may be construed as "speculation". Largely, attempting to place information and motives in order because the wide range of information suggests "rabbit hole" where nothing is exactly as it seems.
This post will be regularly updated and corrected.
Notes on Tsarnaev, Todashev & Victims' relationship:
1) Met at or introduced through Martial Arts Gym
2) Tamerlan introduces Brendan Mess as "best friend"
3) Both Tsarnaev brothers are known to hang around with Mess, Teken & Weissman
4) Todashev also apparently introduced to 3 victims via Tamerlan @ gym or in relationship to martial arts
5) Mess, Teken, & Weissman are suspected or known drug dealers (largely marijuana; update: Weissman also Rx pills, oxycotin)
6) Both Tsarnaev brothers known to smoke marijuana & party until Tamerlan finds religion, then allegedly only Dzhokhar (who tweets several times about getting "cooked" all the way through to bombing)
7) Also suggested that Dzhokhar Tsarnaev at least might have been small time dealer on side for extra cash. Probably mostly to friends or known associates at school. Also possible other under the table or criminal activities supporting his habits including skimming from off-record car repairs.
8) Sister Bella Tsarnaev was later arrested on similar charges Dec 2011 for attempt to distribute marijuana
9) Eric Weissman arrested for distribution 2008; neighbors of Teken suggest he was drug dealer; & Mess was known user, possible dealer, arrested 2010 for assault
10) Todashev also arrested for assault February 2010 "road rage" (of note; he was driving a "food delivery van" at time of event; Tamerlan also reportedly worked as food delivery short time after boxing career ended; related?)
11) Eric Weissman also allegedly founded company that sold glass bongs; may have had relations with larger drug distribution organization (where did he get his drugs?)
In short, the Tsarnaevs and just about everyone they associated with had relationship to martial arts, drugs and generally nefarious activities. Even mother & wife Katherine had been arrested at separate times for shop lifting.
A few notes on time line and events surrounding or leading to murders re: drug busts and "Caucasus":
1) Feb 2011 FSB contacts FBI & suggests that Tamerlan Tsarnaev is looking to contact & join "underground groups"
2) We later learn that part of FSB investigation includes wire tapping of individuals on that side of the ocean. Zubeidadt Tsarnaev is recorded speaking to son & two individuals. Son & one possible relative in vague terms re: Jihad. Another unnamed suspect "in Caucasus region" who, according to reports, was already under FBI investigation supposedly unrelated to terrorism. (Organized Crime? See following)
3) May 2011 Major drug bust in Watertown and Waltham stemming from federal investigation of "international drug trafficking organization" that began February 2010, led to local individuals. Wire tapping from August 2010 to April 2011 provided information on contacts and organization. The suspects appear to be Armenian organized crime. Reported to distribute prescription pills (oxycodone) and marijuana, operating out of several warehouses. $700k cash, gold bars, weapons, vehicles and 80lbs marijuana. Previous raids against ring netted up to $2.7 mil in drugs and assets in Newtown & Bedford.
3) September 11, 2011, Mess, Weissman & Teken murdered Waltham, MA. "Sharp force trauma to necks". Later reported as "nearly decapitated". $5k in money left in apartment, appx 7lbs marijuana strewn over bodies. Men were tied and bound in separate rooms of apartment where they were killed. Investigators suggest drugs or drug deal gone wrong reason for murders. Re: three victims relationship to drugs & dealing. Investigators also suggest at least two men/assailants in apartment at time of murder. Known to victims. No forced entry. Apparent victims, in good shape, martial arts, did not initially resist being bound and gagged (update: apparently was "resisitance" after attack began, continue reading for other updates; however, the door was opened by one of the victims to whomever was outside, not forced open).
4) September 2011, FSB makes second contact with CIA, same request. FBI tagged, case closed, no follow up from any agency. (Question: which came first? Murder or request?)
5) October 2011, another major bust in Waltham related to ongoing FBI & local investigation of drug trafficking ring. $2mil worth of pot, local former councilman & several others, not immediately identified w/ international drug trafficking, but similar use of product, warehouses, etc.
Post Murders
Tamerlan Tsarnaev drops old friends and haunts, desperately trying to make contact with terrorist organizations, trying to arrange travel to Dagestan. He has to borrow money from father (update: this particularly interesting as further info from girlfriend of victim insists there was more than $5k in the apartment prior to murder). Dzhokhar immediately drops friends and doesn't have much contact with anyone until Dec. 2011 where friends express surprise at hearing from him again. Friends he does make or begin to hang with are all from Caucasus region.
Somewhere in this time frame, Tamerlan makes contact with another Chechen, former "resistance", Musa Kadjimurodov who lives in New Hampshire (where Tsarnaev obtained black powder & fireworks for bombs later). Said that Tsarnaev and his wife had come to make a "social visit" a month prior to attacks and he only knew Tsarnaev socially over last few years (2010/2011?).
Todashev goes to Florida where he lives a mostly quiet unassuming life accept for being arrested May 4 for assault. Again. Update: of note, Todashev married shortly within this time frame and may have spent time in Georgia with his wife who, like Tsarnaev's wife, was in healthcare. Specifically, a nurse. Also of note, the residence that Todashev occupied with his "roommate" was in a middle class neighborhood, well kept. Appears outside of his financial capabilities as a sometimes employed trainer?
Skipping forward over plans for attack, attack and shootout. Tamerlan is dead, Dzhokhar immediately confesses and insists he and his brother acted alone. Various interviews with people who knew brothers presents startling info on Tsarnaev and Mess' relationship. DNA confirms that at least Tamerlan involved in murders. (Update: possible connection with a weapon, Ruger .22, may have been taken from murder scene and was one of several weapons collected from Tsarnaev brothers post Watertown shoot out)
Investigation of anyone who knew brothers or had contact produces Kadjimurodov, "former" Chechen resistance fighter, and Ibrigm Todashev, both in Tamerlan's phone contacts and both recently contacted prior to attacks. FBI took Kadjimurodov's DNA and hard drives. No further details available.
The FBI interviews both men. Each insist that their contact with Tamerlan Tsarnaev was only social. Even though it is reported that Tamerlan Tsarnaev had become anti-social since his conversion to Salafi Islam and post murders. After three interviews with FBI, Todashev allegedly confesses to Waltham murders as related to "drug ripoff" (what authorities have been repeating, media reporting and frankly sounds like repeating lead from FBI questions).
Authorities suggest that Todashev was going to sign a confession. In his apartment. (Without a lawyer or Miranda rights?) He allegedly attacks agents and is shot dead. At about midnight. The day before he was planning to leave for Russia.
Aside from where this confession was about to take place, major issue with Todashev's confession is that he was, in fact, repeating an already suggested reason for the murders. He read it or it was suggested during investigation.
Second, obvious reason agent would ask it to be repeated so it could be written down is that the agent suspected Todashev was lying. The tactic of having a suspect repeat a story is common as most who are lying can't remember all details of their lies so they make mistakes. Suspect what "set him off" was Todashev knew he was probably caught in the lie and probably understood purpose of this tactic.
Third, suggests that on one of FBI's previous visits, DNA had been collected along with fingerprints already on file from criminal arrests that put him at scene of murder or was suggested to him that would be the case. Why Todashev may have felt pressured to make some kind of confession.
Fourth, the problem with his confession, that Tamerlan told him there were drugs at murder site and that they would have to kill the men because they could finger Tamerlan.
Toldashev's Confession
First problem: drugs and money were not taken from scene of murder ie no rip off(update: girlfriend suggested more than $5k in apartment; no proof at this time; see comment re: Tamerlan had to borrow money from father for trip; if there was money, Tsarnaev was not apparently a beneficiary).
Second, manner of death highly personal. One or both men did not just "slash" the victims' throats, but "nearly decapitated" them, suggested with an ice pick or other slim, pointed, sharp object. That takes time and effort. (update: Weissman killed at door entryway within minutes; Teken found in kitchen may also have been killed almost immediately or grievously wounded & "coup de grace" delivered later)
In fact, suggests victims did not die quickly, that the murderers, doing it to more than one victim, enjoyed the process and power of act as much as the murder. (update: at least one died "quickly"; Weissman at doorway). Also suggests one weapon used on all three victims meaning each was killed separately, consecutively, not simultaneously by two to three assailants. That does not mean only one assailant did the acts, but only one weapon. Others may have taken turns.
More detailed knowledge of autopsies would provide better understanding of participant involvement in actual acts. Including angle of wounds (height, position and left or right handed), DNA on victims (possible blood from assailants as multiple stabbing or other activities sometimes results in wounds to assailant's hands) and effort (one assailant killing all three would have possible signs of diminishing effort, inability or loss of rage/desire to complete act results in lesser or less wounds; more than one might show different strength or similar effort across victims).
Third problem: If this is a drug deal gone wrong, easier to do quick murder, grab money and drugs and go. Not take half hour or more, murdering men, hang out in apartment staging elaborate scene, tracking blood, fingerprints, foot prints and DNA through scene.
The last part should be repeated: staging elaborate scene. Everything about the murders is about staging. The date: September 11. The manner of death: slicing throat or decapitation. Drugs on bodies, money left behind.
Equally important is the planning that would have to go into the initial phase. More than one accomplice to subdue multiple men. (update: not all of the men were "subdued" ie bound and gagged; the first victim, Weissman, was found in entry way of apartment, suggesting he was killed almost immediately upon opening the door or within minutes; possibly a "blitz" attack; still makes it a planned attack, not consequence of other crime).
Weapons: one is sharp, taken to and/or from the scene as investigation does not indicate weapon found at scene. The autopsies suggest the murder weapon is "one" not several different kinds. A pistol or more to hold victims off while they are restrained.
Rope, zip ties or other materials to subdue men. Unlikely this selection occurred on scene as delaying confining men would mean escalating possibility of resistance or escape. In fact, very narrow time line from possible first contact (relative said last text from victim appx 8:15p 9/11) to possible outside window for murders (Italian food delivery 8:54p, no answer, apt is quiet) suggests preparation, not spur of the moment decision to murder victims for fear of identification.
Update: this section and one above remains, but additional information suggests slightly different scenario to be addressed below.
Orignal analysis: Other aspect, men were taken to separate rooms before murder. Easier to control. They would have no idea what was happening to others, therefore, no reason to put up resistance. This also seems planned ahead. See narrow timeline for murders. Also, perpetrators knew layout of apartment, planned ahead how to subdue and control victims. (Not somebody's first multiple murder?)
Update: Parts of above remain true, but additional details indicate that the men were not "taken" to separate parts of the apartment as much as they were found there by their attackers or retreated to separate rooms.
1) Weissman was killed in a blitz attack within moments of opening the door. His body was found in the entry way. He did apparently open the door to someone he knew and trusted. Earlier reports suggested the "men" were bound and gagged. Reports by neighbors that they had not heard anything like a struggle seemed to support that report. However, it seems unlikely Weissman was "bound" if he was killed immediately upon opening the door. Unless he did not die immediately and the attackers came back to finish the job. However, the disposition of the other victims suggests that the attack occured quickly and consecutively throughout the apartment.
2) Teken was found in the kitchen. Without knowledge of the apartment layout, it is difficult to determine if he simply was the next person the assailants came upon or if he had retreated to this room. Based on info regarding the three victims planned activity for the night(watching football), it is probable that Teken was simply in the kitchen when the assailants found him & that the kitchen was the next room/area approached from the entry way.
3) Mess was found in the back bedroom. His girlfriend indicated that he kept drugs, money and a weapon in this room. While each of the men are described as having multiple wounds to their necks, Mess appears to be the one that sustained additional wounds over other areas of his body. Without the actual autopsy, it would be difficult to ascertain the nature of these wounds. These wounds could have been defensive or they could have been the result of torture to gain information.
Based on his girlfriend's info on a possible weapon or more and the indicators that this room was beyond the kitchen and living room, it suggests that Mess retreated to this room in order to defend himself with a weapon. Further, additional information suggests that furniture in the apartment had been moved or overturned. Possibly during flight or a struggle.
It also suggests that if not Weissman, Teken may have shouted or otherwise alerted Mess to the attack. Mess was apparently quickly confronted in the bedroom before he could reach his weapon. It is also apparent none of the men had any time to consider using their mobile phones. This continues to suggest a very quick (blitz) attack.
Mess' wounds may indicate that he did, in fact, resist. However, if there were two assailants or more, he may have been quickly over powered.
In regards to reports of being "bound and gagged", it is possible that after the initial attacks, the assailants did bind and gag the men. Unless the knife wounds hit vital organs or arteries, a stabbing victim could still live for several minutes or longer. In which case, Todashev's "confession" regarding reason for killing the men to "prevent identification" may not be a complete lie.
If some or all of the men were still alive or thought to be alive, the assailants may have, bound and gagged the men, considered their options and determined that it was better to insure there were no witnesses remaining. This may explain "multiple wounds" to the neck as well as "near decapitated".
Finally, back to motive, if this was going to be a simple rip off, it would have been easier to wait or establish only one, possibly two in the apartment instead of risking approaching three healthy men, two with self defense training and possible weapons. That is exceedingly high risk for an effort that appears to have netted zero take based on drugs and money at the scene.
Knowledge of the men's activities, including Tsarnaev brothers having met them a few days before and possibly shared info on planned activities, along with ability to phone or text to establish the victims' where abouts means Tsarnaev would have had means to determine a more optimum, less risky time for a drug rip off.
Instead, he and the other assailant(s) waited until all three men were known to be at home and likely established that fact before hand. This suggests the primary objective was not the drugs and money, but the murder of the three men.
Possibility of Drugs as Motive
There is still possibility that drugs or drug dealing is the motive. I noted two of the larger drug busts in the area. Both appear to be related to a major FBI investigation into an organized international drug trafficking ring. Each successive bust led to more information and connections.
Noting the apparent origins of the men (Armenian; Caucasus) who were busted in May 2011. These came from several wire tapping operations that extended from August 2010 to April 2011. This seemed interesting as FSB indicated one of Zubedeidt Tsarnaev's contacts was a man "from Caucasus region" already under investigation by FBI for non terror related activities. Suggests the drug ring that was being rolled up?
A question that comes to mind is, regardless of whether FSB provided additional information, how did this contact slip by the FBI? Different units investigating? Wire tapping on other end by FSB not FBI, not shared? Laws that limit reverse of investigation into US citizen on US soil requires additional request for wire tapping, insufficient information?
It is a tenuous connection, but difficult to dismiss considering other relations within the case including apparent family orientation to drug dealing and subsequent major busts that effected area supply.
The elimination of a trusted source for product may have led to shortage of supply. Lack of money or product may have encouraged raiding Mess, et al. Still, money and drugs left at the scene. Does not support suggested/confessed motive.
Possibly suggests retaliation. Money and drugs at scene could be message to others poaching on territory or those who may have "narced" on sources. Todashev and Tsarnaev may have been involved in ring, but then why wouldn't they have been rolled up with the rest? Further, why did both men immediately leave the area if it was a matter of control of territory?
Update: additional report with comment from Wessiman's attorney who said that his client had worked out or was in process of working out a favorable deal after he was busted for distribution. That distribution included a list of drugs that mirrored the larger operation busted in Watertown. However, Weissman's attorney also insisted that this deal did not include giving evidence against any others. This was said very emphatically even though his client was then dead and no longer subject to attorney/client privileges. He would, presumably, have no reason to protect his client's reputation.
Except for fear of retaliation against himself or in regards to the details of any agreement which may have prevented the attorney from releasing any info regarding an on going investigation (stay tuned for review of possible on going operations).
Drugs as Motive=Decoy?
It simply appears that drugs might have had a relationship to the murders, but was not the sole motivator. Elaborate staging of murders does not suggest simple "rip off".
Todashev may have shared Tsarnaev's contempt for men. That is "message" of murder, whatever the motive. Todashev "confessed Islam" per his father, suggesting another relationship with Tsarnaev beyond martial arts, regional references (Todashev was from Grozny, Chechnya; brothers seemed to focus on that relationship; Dzhokhar tweeted "ChechenPower" 3/22/12; most of brothers' social contacts appear to be people from "Caucasus Region") and possibly drugs.
The fact that he was lying about motive of murder seems evident by his reaction when asked to repeat his confession. His stories didn't match. Todashev knew "the gig was up".
It was reported that Todashev had a plane ticket back to Russia for for the next day. He had to know his escape was no longer possible. He had nothing to lose but his life when he attacked the agents and that may only have had value in losing it. Being a martyr. Or, as one suggested "suicide by cop" taking as many with him as he could if he managed to take one officer's weapon. A tactic that has been long taught via hands on training, forums and other jihad media. It has been used before in Afghanistan, Iraq and other conflict areas. This same tactic has been used by many criminals of the common stripe against law enforcement.
If he was involved with a dangerous international narco-trafficking ring, being taken in may have seemed like a death warrant. These organizations often maintain links within the prison system. Prison would not appear to be a safe place to end.
This would be the moment to remember that Tamerlan Tsarnaev approached Officer Collier at MIT, chatted a few moments and then drew his weapon, shooting Officer Collier in cold blood. He attempted to take Officer Collier's weapon, but it was in a triple lock holster.
He and his brother then went on to have a rolling fire fight with officers that included throwing bombs. At the end of that, he rushed officers, shooting until his weapon was empty, attempting to throw another explosive before he was subdued. Dzhokhar Tsarnaev may have attempted to ram and kill the officers in the process.
Tamerlan Tsarnaev was quite ready to kill as many officers as possible and die in the process. This knowledge was very likely on the officers' and agents' minds while interviewing Todashev, realizing he was lying and then being attacked. By a man with a history of violence including the cold blooded murders of three men and purported to have martial arts training.
By a man who may have shared Tsarnaev's ideology.
*As a reminder, this is not a professional analysis or verified report. This is simply an attempt to place disparate information in line with what has been reported and keep track of thoughts on subject. Everything written here should be taken with a proverbial grain of salt until otherwise verified by official investigations and reports.
**"Lone Wolf" declarations by officials seem premature. Not because other connections are known, but because they are not and law enforcement is still investigating all leads.
***It seems apparent that law enforcement and investigations are all around the suspects and their connections, yet they are repeatedly missed. Some suggest this is the luck of criminals. Could be plausible as there are a number of infamous criminals who have repeated contact with the law without interdiction over long periods of time. The first to come to mind is the Green River Killer. Conversely, even in review of those cases, law enforcement was able to improve education across agencies regarding identification and investigation of those crimes. That is what we should be looking at here. What issues, lack of coordination or information may have prevented intervention and interdiction of these men and subsequent attacks?
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