Code Name "VERAX": Snowden Uncovered - In Context

When building Edward Snowden's "picture", it's easy to get lost in the details and lose sight of the big picture.  Like a puzzle, putting all of the straight edges together to form a frame work then working on the pieces inside, matching tiny details of each piece to put them together to form the picture.  Snowden's puzzle though is not a simple one.  It is the complicated variety where there are two pictures: the first, the one presented to the public through his interlocutors as an iconic hero of freedom and privacy, a whislteblower; the second, when flipped over, a young man in the center of a larger picture of espionage and counter-espionage, international economic and political relationships.

Maybe the craziest way to put a two sided puzzle together is from the inside out.  Or, catching an image in a few pieces of the puzzle and putting that small piece of the picture together without knowing exactly where it fits.  No framework, just waiting to see which picture is emerging, building the picture of Edward Snowden.

Edward Snowden does not appear in a vacuum.  It only looks that way because, like the thousands of pieces of a puzzle dumped out on a table, the public has been bombarded with thousands of pieces of information, other events seeming obliterated beneath the bombardment of images and words splashed across the screens of televisions and computers.  The big picture gets lost.

The Russian Re-Set

"I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straight forward and trustworthy and we had a very good dialogue.

"I was able to get a sense of his soul.   "He's a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country and I appreciate very much the frank dialogue and that's the beginning of a very constructive relationship," Mr Bush said. (June 16, 2001)

September 11, 2001 had not happened yet.  The United States was just coming out of a small recession after the "dot.com bubble" had burst in 1998.  After the collapse of Russia, NATO was slowly expanding it's relationships with countries who had either been within the Russian sphere of influence or part of the Soviet Union.  The United States and western allies were looking to expand their trade and diversify their energy needs as China had been slowly gaining ground towards the number two slot of the world's economy, it's energy needs expanding with it. 

Russia had been working hard to expand it's role in the energy hungry economy, developing it's gas and oil production, then and currently, it's largest source of state income and it's largest contributor to the Russian economy as a whole.  It has agreements with it's previous federated states, many of them land locked, to carry oil and natural gas across the Russian borders into energy hungry European countries. 

Down in the Caucasus, Russia was fighting a decade long insurgency, attempting to maintain it's grip on a region that bordered the Caspian Sea.  The Caspian Sea is one of the most productive and easily accessible deposits of oil and gas, but it's bordered by a restless area and it's product, Russia's economic life blood, must pass through or around the disputed area. 

It's the shared resources of the Caspian and it's security that makes Iran an important partner for Russia, it's proximity an easy route for trade and Iran's position within the Middle East and OPEC, Russia's one way to maintain influence within the world's largest oil and gas producing region.  The ability of this region to impact Russia's economy is no small matter.  A fluctuation in production creating the difference of $1/bpd eating away at billions of dollars Russia needs to maintain it's other wise stagnant and undiversified economy.  Eating away at it's stability and attempts to re-assert itself on the international stage, it's eastern counter part in China outstripping it by miles. 

In the South-west, the small country of Georgia, having broken away in 1991 and sitting on the Black Sea, was still a matter of contention for Russia.  It's direct connection to Turkey had provided a low cost access to delivery of oil and natural gas overland via pipelines that gave Russia additional access to the Mediterranean Sea for trade beyond the bottle neck that is the Bosphorus Straits .  After Georgia's independence from the USSR, Russia had supported autonomy for Abkhazia and Ossetia, whittling away at Georgia's overall size and ability to stabilize it's economy or present any military threat to Russia's southern trade routes. 

Then, there was September 11 and the US made agreements with Russia to fly troops and supplies through it's air space, but no military equipment.  The US began to broaden it's relationships with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan not only as supply bases for US forces in Afghanistan, but trade and energy, anti-narcotics and anti-proliferation of WMD.  Georgia underwent the Rose Revolution in 2003, it's end negotiated with assistance from Russia and the United States.  The Ukraine experienced the Orange Revolution, 2004-05.  Turkey, already a member of NATO since 1952, was being vetted for membership in the European Union. 

For Russia, it appeared that it's long historical struggle to maintain influence over a vast region and access to resources and trade routes, was slowly being chipped away by the United States.  Russia, not only no longer an international power, but hemmed in and relegated once again to an observer on the international stage, a very junior partner to the United States and the rolling democratization of it's once important partners. 

In the midst of this slow chilling, Russia attempted to use it's supply of natural resources to regain influence within the Ukraine in 2005. It accused the Ukraine government of siphoning gas intended for European markets.  Among one of it's primary customers was Germany.   Russia's Gazprom cut off supplies, greatly impacting not only the Ukraine, but Germany and several other European countries in the middle of winter. 

While these disputes appeared to be nothing but a question of business and economics, it could not escape anyone's attention that these were hardball tactics meant to push back and assert some political leverage as Russia felt it's direct influence over it's former states waning and the pressure of United States' influence, possibly rendering Russia a junior partner in the world economy and political stage forever. 

These disputes continued until 2009, a small non-violent war even as Russia began to re-assert it's influence in countries like Kazakhstan through long standing defense cooperation and Uzbekistan, after critical reaction from the United States to a massacre of protesters, shut down the use of an air base.  Tajikistan remains a critical component of the United States' logistics into Afghanistan as the Pakistan routes continue to be threatened and occasionally shut down by militants and protests even as the US begins to slowly withdraw.

The differences between the United States and Russia continue.  President Obama, upon election, promised a "reset" to US and Russian relationships that has not only never come about, but grown cooler over the last several years.  The United States and EU are both supporting the most recent opposition movement in the Ukraine, ostensibly a lever against Russia's overt control of that country's political apparatus and, essentially, control of EU economy through control of Ukraine's oil and natural gas pipelines.

Issues like Syria, with both sides sitting on opposite ends of the table, Syria representing Russia's last toe hold in the Middle East and it's last "base" outside of the Black Sea.  Old Russian relationships like Libya and Iraq having gone down the drain with US assistance even as the US slowly pulls at Russia's connections with Iran, finally beginning to make progress on nuclear proliferation. 

Understanding Russia's desire to have influence over OPEC through a secondary relationship with Iran, Saudi Arabia baldly announced an offer to bring Russia into OPEC in exchange for it to stop supporting the Assad regime.  Russia sees OPEC as a competitor that needs to be influenced, not a path to it's own energy power and economic stability and the offer was not even considered. 

As the arctic ices melt, Russia has been quick to seize on territory, establishing claims to nascent and possibly short term expanded trade routes in the north that would unlock Russia from it's historic and geographic position of always being the beggar for trade and transit routes. 

Pivot to the East

Then there is Russia and China and the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).  It was originally an attempt to offset the western NATO military power as well as an Eastern trade agreement, but, again, Russia finds itself a junior partner both in trade and Asian regional power.  China has what can be classified as Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) economic relations with the United States and the west since Nixon's historic visit in 1972, cementing the divide between China and the then USSR. 

While China works with Russia as it provides large amounts of natural resources to the energy hungry country, China has always plowed it's own road and placed it's interests well above those of the organization or that of it's relations with Russia.  Both countries have considered such projects as attempting to remove the United States' dollar as the primary currency for trade and replacing it with another currency such as the EU's "Euro" or China's own "Yuan". 

However, to keep it's competitiveness in international trade and it's own controlled economy growing, China has maintained it's own separate monetary policy, keeping it's Yuan undervalued to maintain it's position as the number one exporter.  Even as Russia and China compete, the ties continue to grow stronger with China's continued demands for energy.  Russia has taken additional steps to reach out to countries surrounding China, strengthening economic and defense ties, attempting to balance out China's power in their relationship.

In the meantime, China has continued to push it's own economic, energy and defense power in the region.  China making claims on the Senkaku Islands represents a significant push to begin controlling trade through the East China Sea where the Islands are included in the Japanese archipelago that creates a major choke point between Taiwan and Japan.  Survey of the Islands shows that it may have extensive oil and natural gas deposits, also an important feature for China attempting to gain improved and secured domestic resources. 

China has also recently declared an air defense zone that extends far beyond it's territorial waters and into Japans established air defense zone which itself is expanded by claims to Islands within the archipelago.  This is about trade as much as defense.  Any country that could claim control over the air and sea, could control the flow of trade and defense to surrounding countries like Japan, South Korea and recently flourishing Vietnam.  More importantly, it could control the flow of trade from East to West, a significant influence on United States and European economies, particularly in the time of war.

The United States, recognizing this danger, has continued to support Japan's claims to the islands and directly challenged China's claims to the air defense zone by flying a bomber training mission through the disputed area overlapping Japan's air defense zone.  China has continued to build it's navy, including purchasing and refurbishing a Russian aircraft carrier, in order to exert it's presence in the Yellow Sea.  Most agree that China will continue to slow roll it's navy, but build a blue seas navy eventually and regardless of any protestations.

In the midst of this, China has continued to use state sponsored cyber programs to attack US economic interests, bank systems and governance.  The largest US and European corporations have been hacked with customer information, including credit cards, flying into the nether space of the internet and into criminal, possibly state organized, hands from China to Russia, wreaking havoc on the US economy and it's economic security. 

China has stolen research and development information from US corporations for everything from basic technology to military equipment, either through hacking or direct espionage.  The latest, a Chinese attack helicopter, that appears to be a copy of the US Apache H-64, even as another report claims it was designed by a Russian manufacturer.  The helicopters have even played a role in the on going dispute over the Senkaku Islands. 

The helicopters aren't the only military hardware that China appears to be rapidly cloning as it seeks to beef up it's military.  Two US drone designs appear to have made it into China's military hardware including the Sentinel Stealth Drone reported here, June 2, 2013 and the Predator drone reported here, November 2012. 

From commercial products to military equipment, from allies in the region to shipping trade routes, China has continued to impact not only US physical security, but it's economic security as well.

In the Middle of the Middle East

The United States' wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been good for China.  In the wake of these wars, China has become one of the major consumers and production companies pumping oil out of Iraq's booming fields.  In Afghanistan, China has purchased mineral rights that have allowed to China to develop a major copper mine among other projects in the country, including developing a railroad for the transport of resources and trade goods. 

China was also one of several countries who were largely exempted from the sanctions regime restricting trade and oil sales from Iran as the US through world bodies attempted to pressure Iran into giving up it's nuclear ambitions.  China is also one of Iran's major trade partners for both import and export of non-energy related goods and technology.  China has recently announced a new contract for oil with Iran, increasing it's contract to $106 billion for oil. 

For Iran, the war in Iraq was both feared and a boon.  The United States was now on it's door step and Iran worked very hard with it's proxies in Iraq to force the United States out, supporting both the Shia militias of Moqtada Sadr and allowing Al Qaeda foreign fighters, money and supplies to transit it's borders.  That controlled relationship remains today with Al Qaeda continuing to operate a core pipeline from east to west into Syria. 

Iran's interests in Syria are multi-fold including a trade and transit route to the Mediterranean Sea through Syria and Lebanon for it's oil, natural gas and other trade products that would be other wise bottle necked by the Hormuz Straits into the Persian Gulf.  This is it's primary reasons for continuing to support Assad and for it's many years of supporting Hezbollah.  Not only does Hezbollah help keep this route open, it puts pressure on the United States' ally Israel, the single largest threat to Iran in the region despite it's size, and has used Hezbollah as a proxy to lash out at the United States in the Middle East and abroad. 

Finally, Iran's projection of power in Syria and Lebanon has been used to form a defensive depth where Iran might be able to threaten shipping in the Mediterranean.  Witness S-300 missiles being delivered to Assad from Russia and transferred to Hezbollah that Israel continues to strike.  This also works for Russia where it's own shipping is bottlenecked by the Bosphorus and it's last base in the Mediterranean at Tartus is under threat. 

In the midst of this, China's huge trade with Iran not only provided it the economic ability to sustain during nuclear sanctions and negotiations, but gave it money and likely technology that it has used to support Assad, Hezbollah and possibly influence one or both of the Al Qaeda branches working within Syria, countering the United States' efforts supporting western leaning rebels in the FSA and similar groups. 

Neither can it escape notice that an ever increasing amount of Chinese and Russian manufactured weapons have been flowing into the Middle East, some from stockpiles that have been freed from war and others from ships flagged from different countries than those that own them or whose products are being shipped into an area. 

(There is also the strange case of the North Korean ship transferring weapons and Russian MiG fighter parts from Cuba to North Korea.) 

Then there is Egypt where, since 2011, the country's political turmoil, twist and turns have come full circle with the military once again asserting it's power and routinely accusing the United States of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and terrorism in the country.  US objections to the later massacre of mostly unarmed civilians during August 14th furthering the division of US and Egypt relationships as huge posters of Vladimir Putin went up around the country.  The US ambassador, Anne Patterson, was paradoxically portrayed as a witch interfering in Egyptian politics.

After the US threatened to cut off military aid to Egypt, Russia made overtures to Egypt suggesting a sale of military equipment.  Most recently, Egypt's likely next president, General (now Field Marshal) Sisi has made a trip to Russia where he received "the blessing" of Putin and Russia for his run for presidency.  US ally Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperative have continued to support Egypt through economic assistance.  Without which, Egypt would quickly find itself sinking into an economic morass that might trigger a second uprising.  That's if it isn't still on that trajectory. 

Egypt, of course, sits on the Suez Canal, the western transit point for east to west and west to east main trade routes as well as the main routes for US naval ships to transit to these same areas, protecting US shipping and economic interests from the China Seas to the Mediterranean.  Interdiction to this route would force trade to go around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa, adding an additional ten days to shipping and increasing the cost of goods and resources exponentially. 

Even the threat of that closure or the increased cost to transit the canal by goods or naval ships could have drastic impact on US and western economy and security.  The US, for instance, would be hard pressed to keep pressure on Iran throughout nuclear negotiations with US ships parked in the Straits of Hormuz.  This also protects the transit of oil and natural gas products from the Gulf and Saudi Arabia, keeping the energy markets stable and defending it from attack or closure from Iran. 

Again, not just a threat to the United States, but to European and eastern allies and commercial partners.  In short, attempting to place another control or choke hold on the United States and allies economic and physical security.

We move onto Yemen, the boot heel of the Arabian Peninsula that abuts the trade route from the Arabian Sea into the Red Sea and through the Suez Canal.  Not only has Yemen served as a long time mid-point and stop for US naval ships securing the trade routes east to west and west to east, but as a refueling stop for cargo ships and tankers carrying their trade. 

Slowly, that has declined as the US and other interested parties have moved across the straits to Djibouti, Aden's Port becoming less reliable and more risky as internal groups like the Houthi, supported by Iran, and AQAP, supported by known numbers of contributors (even, quite possibly Iran).  The United States continues to work with the Yemen government attempting to stabilize the country and insure that no "non-state" actors can use that sensitive area to interdict or completely block commerce and naval transit through the narrow passage between Yemen and the Horn of Africa. 

Finally, we arrive at Somalia, on the Horn of Africa, where an Islamic militant group has been fighting for control and where that same group participated in or facilitated piracy against ships transiting the area.  The United States and it's allies have stepped up naval patrols in the area protecting commerce while UN supported African missions have stepped in to support the Somalia government and attrite the militant groups' ability to interfere in international trade. 

Where al Shabaab gets its money and Chinese/Russian weapons is anyone's guess.

The Big Picture

Map courtesy of Hofstra.edu

 

 

It takes only a glance at the map to understand the implications of all of these events.  From China's attempts to control the strategic choke points through the China Sea, by laying claim to the Senaku Islands and creating a wide "air defense zone", and potentially interdict the Straits of Malacca by beefing up it's naval presence in the Yellow Sea, to the risks of piracy from "non-state actors" in Somalia's Horn of Africa and the "non-state" actors of Yemen's boot heel, to the Russian wooing of Egypt, thus, influence over decisions regarding transit through the Suez Canal, that the United States and it's western allies economic and physical security is under attack, economically, politically and physically. 

 

That is only from a very limited overview of events and situations as they have progressed over the last decade and half.  All of it occurring within the same frame as events such as September 11, 2001, that severely impacted the United States' economy, to the Mortgage scandal and banking bailouts through 2008.  The United States has slowly been attempting to pull itself out of an economic morass that continues to plague the country while reducing it's commitments overseas in Afghanistan. 

 

This has created an opportunity for Russia and China to move, either through the United States' own blundering on foreign policy or it's inability to see the big picture clearly and clearly call out the events as they are even as Russia and China continue overt and covert activities to undermine the United States and it's allies, from Europe to Australia to Asia and places in between.
 

Snowden in Context

When the event of Edward Snowden and his revelations concerning US and allied intelligence activities are placed in context of the "Big Picture", it should come as little surprise that his activities are not viewed as an attempt strengthen freedom in the United States nor around the globe, but as part of a larger, on going effort against the United States and it's allies.  Efforts that have also included cyber attacks and long term, direct espionage. 

 

Snowden did not appear in a vacuum and his activities, such as providing China with information on United States' intelligence and counter-intelligence efforts, must be viewed within this larger context.  The extent of what information Snowden shared with China or Russia after his escape to Hong Kong and on to Russia is unknown.  Neither, for that matter, is the length of time over which he may have already been providing information nor the relationship of the outside actors who helped him escape and distribute information. 

 

This is the "Big Picture" and this is the context.  This is Veritas, the truth and the reality. 

 

 

Read Also:

Code Name "VERAX": Snowden Uncovered - The Geneva Decision

Code Name "VERAX": Snowden Uncovered (the movie-esque quality of Snowden Spy Craft)

Idiot Wind: A Compendium of Snowden, WikiLeaks, Greenwald, Poitras and Appelbaum Topics

Ed v. Ed or How to Think About the Snowden Operation

Russian Intelligence is Behind the Snowden Show: German Intelligence

On Snowden and Coincidences

The End of the Snowden Operation

Edward Lucas:  The New Cold War

Edward Lucas: The Snowden Operation

Catherine Fitzpatrick: Privacy For Me and Not For Thee (Wikileaks and the Snowden Operation)